Best Picture
What will
win:
It’s the most even field in years – partly because
the films are a generally ordinary bunch. Pacesetter Life of Pi may have been overtaken by Ben Affleck’s Argo, in which starry Hollywood
ingenuity bests faceless Iranian treachery.
What
should win:
Either Lincoln,
Steven Spielberg’s rediscovery of magisterial storytelling instincts, or Silver Linings Playbook, the liveliest
nominee, for setting about a careworn story arc in sparky, unconventional
fashion.
Overlooked:
Its lingering, unresolved mysteries have divided
critics and audiences, but The Master,
one of the foremost American screen achievements of last year, deserved a
nomination at the very least.
Who will
win:
With BAFTA-winner Affleck going without nomination –
the stench of Gigli seemingly lingers
– it’s a two-horse race: Pi’s Ang Lee
looks the likely beneficiary, with a certain Mr. Spielberg waiting in the
wings.
Who
should win:
Deserving as they are, Lee and Spielberg already
have Oscars, so let’s hail Silver Linings
supremo David O. Russell (Three Kings,
The Fighter) for consistently jazzing up material that might have become
flatly generic.
Overlooked:
Paul Thomas Anderson, for his chancy, visionary work
on The Master; on a more commercial
note, erstwhile Academy fave Sam Mendes was unlucky to miss out with Skyfall, his triumphant 007 reinvention.
Who will
win:
Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln. Day-Lewis has become as reliable a shoo-in on Academy
acting ballots as Meryl Streep; watch him slipping quietly, unshowily, and
wholly persuasively under Honest Abe’s stovepipe and you realise why.
Who
should win:
If not Day-Lewis, then Joaquin Phoenix: no less
Methody and no less unforgettable as The
Master’s damaged, drunken sailor. Props to Bradley Cooper, too, for putting
The Hangover’s crassness behind him
with Silver Linings Playbook.
Overlooked:
Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour’s tormented other half; Matthew McConaughey, whose wiry
assassin in the Academy-unfriendly Killer Joe reminded us of the electrifying sparks this perennial romcom smoothie
is capable of generating.
Who will
win:
Another open field: sprightly Hollywood hares
Jessica Chastain (the controversy-dogged Zero Dark Thirty) and Jennifer Lawrence (Silver
Linings Playbook) are being challenged by tortoise-like veteran Emmanuelle
Riva, clinging to whatever dignity remains in Amour.
Who
should win:
Cinephiles won’t argue if Riva wins, but Lawrence –
a runner-up for 2010’s Winter’s Bone
– makes a tough and compelling case for her character, choosing life, where Amour settles in for death.
Overlooked:
A trio of Brits: Judi Dench, for seizing control of Skyfall, Keira Knightley, for lighting
up Anna Karenina, and Andrea
Riseborough, going pale with uncertainty as the MI5 informant in Shadow Dancer.
What will
win:
Amour. The
only film among the nominees to also make the Best Picture shortlist, it’s a
stone-cold certainty – and there’s nothing Academy voters like more than having
their certainties confirmed.
What
should win:
Pablo Larrain’s formally bold, narratively stirring
Chilean entrant NO, currently wowing
UK audiences in recounting how a dissident group of ad execs helped to unseat
Augusto Pinochet.
Overlooked:
Pointed Swiss contender Sister, about a teenage thief stalking a ski resort, and Barbara, Christian Petzold’s gripping
micro-drama of life under the Stasi, just missed the shortlist. Aleksandr
Sokurov’s eye-popping Faust didn’t
even get that far.
The 85th Academy Awards take place in Los Angeles this evening.
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